My Initial Analysis of Elections 2009 in Orissa
Elections 2009 March 25th. 2009, 10:18pmA month back my impression was that the conventional wisdom was that BJD is going to sweep the elections based on CM Naveen Patnaik’s clean image and Congress party’s lack of an acceptable leader. This was based on BJD’s performance in the municipal elections held in February where it not only did extremely well in Cuttack, but also in Baripada. The CM campaigned hard in all the places. Earlier they also did very well in Bhubaneswar and some other places. In all these places BJD and BJP were not together. They were in a so-called friendly contest. The performance in those elections gave confidence to the BJD leaders that they will do well even if they go it alone. ( One thing they missed was that in those contests BJP was a "friendly" competititor and was not going all out against BJD.) This confidence and BJP’s absurd deamnd of seat allocation close to what they had in the past two elections was the immediate reason BJD decided to split from BJP. But this was in the works for some time. It was obvious when BJD went alone in the municipal elections that they were trying to judge their individual strength and based on that they will decide on the seat allocations. In December 2008 they were ready to split from BJP if it had not called off the Cristmast day strike.
After the split BJP has gone all out villifying BJD, Naveen Patnaik and especially BJD lieutenant Pyari Mohapatra. So this is different from the "friendly" contest that BJD faced from BJP in the municipal elections. The initial charge of BJP that BJD betrayed it does not sound reasonable to me. They used that in Karantaka and it made sense there as it was indeed betrayed by its partners when they did not hand over the CM post as they had agreed before. In case of Orissa, BJP’s charge of betrayal is just noise and does not make any sense. What BJP was doing was not admitting its weakness and was kind of blackmailing BJD to get almost the same number of seats as before. The blackmail was that they were saying that they had X% percent of the vote in earlier elections and if BJD will lose that percentage then they will lose a lot of seats. BJP was also reminding BJD that when Biju Patnaik decided to break his alliance with the communist parties in the ninties it lost the elections to Congress. But in my opinion BJP has way overdone it. BJP is not much popular in Orissa and was basically piggybacking on Naveen’s popularity. Plus it has become quite unpopular because of the alleged involvement of Sangh parivar in the Kandhamal deaths that brought bad name to Orissa all over the world. From being considered one of the most peaceful states in the country, Orissa became associated with the Cristian killings in Kandhamal. Many in Orissa hold the Sangha Parivaar responsible for this worldwide defamation of Orissa. Recently Bijay Mohapatra and Dilip Ray joined BJP. Although this got a lot of press, my thought is that this is not going to have much impact.
The Congress was initially demoralized and the revamping of its state level leadership had initially given it some impetus. But the multiple leaders (KP Singh Deo, Ramchandra Ulaka, Srikant Jena and Bhakta Das) have clashed about their lists of who should stand where and Youth Congress President Rohit Pujari’s resignation and joining BJD is going to further hamper Congress in Orissa.
There is not much to talk about the other parties except that the newfound allies of BJD, such as NCP, CPI and CPI(M) have become lucky. They may win some seats because of BJD not contesting those seats and supporting them. They will help BJD a bit in that their support will reduce the villification of BJD in the media and campaign.
Regardless of all of the above, the halo of BJD and its supremo Naveen Patnaik is much less than what it was during the municipal elections in Cuttack and Baripada. My feeling is that once the dust settles, the candidates are anounced and campaigning begins in earnest, BJD will slowly get back its popularity, may be not 100% but a large part of it. But BJD should not take this as a given and must work hard in getting its message through and in comparing Naveen’s clean image as compared to the other leaders.
In subsequent articles I will write why I think a regional party with a clean leader like Naveen Patnaik, who will have an even bigger stature after winning third time in a row, will be good for Orissa in this elections. My expectation and hope is that BJD will come to power in the state and UPA with BJD’s crucial support will come in power in Delhi. If this happens and Naveen Patnaik makes appropriate demands in a timely manner then Orissa will benefit a lot. However, I may support individual contestants from other parties if they are way better than the other candidates from that constituency. For example, I am leaning to support Mr. Kharabela Swain of BJP for the Balasore seat, because of his performance in bringing up Orissa issues in the last five years in the Lok Sabha.
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March 26th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
Well a pretty good analysis. I agree with most of the points. In my opinion the biggest losers in the state and central elections will be the BJP. Though they are likely to win some of their traditional seats like Sundergarh, Keonjhar, Nabrangpur, Kalahandi and Bolangir and Deogarh. I doubt about Kharbel Swain winning this election. There is quite a bit of discontent due to the floods. The big candidates like Jual Oram, Parsuram Majhi, Gamang, Ananta Nayak are sure to win. In my opinion in the central elections the BJD should increase its tally by a few to about 15. But a few may fall into Congress’s hands as well. So it should be a tight election.
March 26th, 2009 at 1:56 pm
As for the state elections things will be pretty tight. We should hope Naveen will be able to form govt on his own and with a slight support from left and ncp. Also I think Naveen’s is sitting on the border with respect to the central election. He is likely to support whoever is likely to form the govt. and ask for one or two key ministries. His only problem will be if one party turns out to be a strong position in the parliament. As BJP would not want to tie up with Naveen again nor will the state congress like it if Sonia decides to take his help in the center. So Naveen’s MPs will be some of the last guys to be approached for support.
Hope it turns out to be good for Orissa both at the Center and state elections.
March 27th, 2009 at 5:16 am
In alliance politics 1+1 can even become 11. In my view BJD has taken a huge risk by dumping BJP and the State may be unnecessarily pushed into political instability because of this. Congress with its 35% vote share sits pretty compared to 40% of BJD and around 20% of BJP because the votes of BJD and BJP are confined to regions. BJD with its base in coastal Orissa and BJP in Western Orissa may get the highest chunk of their seats in these two regions with big margins but Congress being present in every constituency in equal measure may come close to power not because of any spectular work but just because the breakdown of the alliance due to failure of seat sharing talks which was later projected as high sounding secular principles. It may be my assumption but I think BJD on its own may not go past 60 and BJP 20. In that case they have to come together to keep the Congress out. Naveen joining UPA will make BJP the alternative pole in State politics and will make Naveen Patnaik irrelevant in State politics.
March 27th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Excellent analysis!!! Looking forward to your further views on Orissa election scenario. I feel this election in orissa is either going to bring Naveen Patnaik with an absolute majority or BJD is going to be wiped out from the political stage. Except Naveen’s image BJD has nothing to boast. Even the colorful paintings of his Rajdhani may backfire through votes from remote village. The work he has done will bear fruit for the next government only and could attribute to the next government. It reminds me the BJPs initiatives in Delhi and Sheila Dikshit yielding the gain. I would be keen to know on the BJP’s game plan. Barring Archana, I don’t think Bijay or Dillip kind of people are going to add value to the party or state. They don’t have a leader like Naveen. I think it is an opportunity for BJP to have its base built in Orissa just like Jharkhand, Karnataka or Himachal. The top gainers from this will be Communists and Congress. Losers could be JMM & BJD. Yes, MAK Swain is a great guy earned a lot of reputation. Personally I feel leaders like Naveen, Swain, Jay Panda are the change agents for Orissa.
March 28th, 2009 at 3:06 pm
Well I dont think the BJD will be wiped out nor do I expect a huge jump in their no. of seats. My expectation is Naveen will just be able to form a govt, with support of a few independents, who have traditionally gone for BJD. Yes, in the present scenario, you tend to see western Orissa dominated by BJP, while coastal by BJD, but if u study vote percentages, the BJP did not enjoy huge percentages before the BJD era, they were with the then JD. But as the BJD did not contest a lot of the seats, those votes turned towards the BJP. In the LS elections, the BJP has been able to build a few strong candidates, but I expect the seats held by the BJP to dwindle, and those shifting equally between the BJD and the Congress. SO Congress may hit 45-50, BJD 70-75. about 10-15 for the BJP. A few of the independents will also end up getting BJD seats. And the fringe parties will end up supporting the Naveen.
Naveen’s party will come alive, if Sonia needs his support for forming govt at center, which will make the congress opposition in the state meaningless, allowing him a free reign in the state.
In Indian elections in my opinion, you should not expect huge changes. Remember in Orissa, BJD and BJP have raked in the votes only on Naveen’s clean image, to some extent the still firing charisma of Biju Babu, and now to some extent some good work of Naveen govt. None of that has yet faded, so BJD will still emerge as the largest party.
But yes I think the BJD has already realised, that they shall not come to power in a landslide like in the municipal elections. This is largely because a large % of urban voters are very well exposed to the development work undertaken in the last few years. I have known many senior IAS officials in the state govt and one thing is Naveen’s commitment to some development work in unwavering. And this fact rubbed off on the urban populace, who then rubbed off the other parties from the map of local politics.